The Future of the Guatemalan Education System

This report models the impact of investments in education, with a goal of improving educational attainment (quantity) as well as test scores (quality), in Guatemala on economic activity, social violence, and migration by conducting quantitative modeling using International Futures. We created a scenario (the Current Path) that estimated the future trajectory of education in Guatemala based on a continuation of domestic investment and foreign aid allocation. We project that trends in Guatemalan education are expected to lag behind regional peers, but that these investments have broad and long-term impacts (through 2060) on increasing economic activity (by nearly $700 billion), reducing social violence (by 18 percent), and emigration (by over 70,000 non-seasonal migrants). We also explored alternative scenarios, such as a five-year push on increasing education investment with the goal of catching up to regional peers as well as a push to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals related to educational attainment by 2030. We found that both investment scenarios produce significant positive impacts on economic activity, reduce social violence, and reduce pressure for emigration. This report concludes that increasing investments in education in Guatemala has significant benefits by 2040, and are even larger through 2060.